<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN"> <html> <head> </head> <body bgcolor="#ffffff" text="#000000"> Good post agi'n der Fred. You see the thing I'm worried most about in all this is that it actually takes a stable and sizeable market to support the industry to the degree that there are enough people involved in production that the knowledge/experience base remains intact.  If that falters... then the quality of instruments will fall and electronics will become even more a viable alternative for the low end market.  That is an evil self feeding circle if it gets rolling. The numbers showing some 90 % of world piano production already in the hands of Chinese says more then anything else to me that the buying public will opt for the cheapest solution.  All that remains necessary for the total demise of the acoustic market is for enough of that same buying public to decide that all in all electronics are good enough.  These are on the march as well mind you... the cost of good quality L-pianos will drop dramatically as analog interfaces become unnecessary. The quality of artificial simulated acoustic piano sound will continue to improve to equal if not out do todays best recordings at some point.... all this just gets too seductive in the end. In my mind the only question is how long this transition will take.  Taking a shot in the dark... I'd say that a hundred years from now acoustic music will be a nostalgic memory wisping speedily into the forgotten.  I mean... put yourself in the position of the fellow living in the year 2108..... her every day reality consists of being plugged directly into the nett via a real time interface with the rest of the world... the greatest majority of her efforts are executed in a virtual reality.  Knowledge and virtual skills are fed directly into her memory....  what need does she have of a physical piano in the first place ?  Science fiction... ? I'm far from sure about that... the basic tools are already being ponced out.  Read back issues of Scientific American... June 2007 I think.... they already are well on the way to figuring out the brains <<machine code language>> Once thats done... an interface to whatever internet exists when they do is quickly accomplished... and most of the other tools for interfacing human behaviour/communication are already pretty well figured out and are only hampered by existing technology.  Cheers RicB <blockquote>I think there is and will continue to be a market, admittedly small, for truly high quality musical pianos. It will consist of concert halls, institutions of higher education, and a small number of  individuals (the rare ones who are not only accomplished musicians,  but also have a fair amount of money). The major problem facing  manufacturers, I believe, is that they are competing with an enormous  used/remanufactured inventory out there for re-sale. But I am  convinced that some manufacturers will survive. The parts  manufacturers will survive because of us, the rebuilders purchasing  parts. The manufacturers that survive will be those which are nimble,  and find creative ways of marketing - like even (shudder) the Baldwin  one-off "designer" pianos.    But, yes, I become more and more pessimistic about the future of such  firms as the lovely German ones. Fragile as all get out. The one truly  bright spot is China: an enormous market that is seemingly just  hitting its stride. 40-50 million piano students, with no used  inventory to speak of in the country. Some percentage will become  accomplished and demand quality. We're seeing a heck of a lot of them  come to this country and raise the bar. Regards, Fred Sturm University of New Mexico fssturm at unm.edu</blockquote> </body> </html>