How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?

[Brian Lawson]

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As the webpage was to do with calculating sizes in the universe it would =
be interesting to know just how many tuners there are to see how good or =
bad the math's is in the prediction dept  of astronomy .
Brian



  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Billbrpt@AOL.COM=20
  To: pianotech@ptg.org=20
  Sent: 10 January, 2002 05:17 PM
  Subject: Re: How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?


  In a message dated 1/10/02 8:48:30 AM Central Standard Time, =
jgunderson@monmouth.com (John Gunderson) writes:=20



    Just in case you were wondering.=20




  Here is what I read on this website:=20

  <<As a lecturer, Enrico Fermi used to challenge his classes with =
problems that, at first glance, seemed impossible. One such problem was =
that of estimating the number of piano tuners in Chicago given only the =
population of the city. When the class returned a blank stare at their =
esteemed professor, he would proceed along these lines:=20

  From the almanac, we know that Chicago has a population of about 3 =
million people.=20
  Now, assume that an average family contains four members so that the =
number of families in Chicago must be about 750,000.=20
  If one in five families owns a piano, there will be 150,000 pianos in =
Chicago.=20
  If the average piano tuner=20
  serviced four pianos every day of the week for five days=20
  rested on weekends, and=20
  had a two week vacation during the summer,=20

  then in one year (52 weeks) he would service 1,500 pianos. 150,000/(4 =
x 5 x 50) =3D 150, so that there must be about 150 piano tuners in =
Chicago.=20
  This method does not guarantee correct results; but it does establish =
a first estimate which might be off by no more than a factor of 2 or =
3--certainly well within a factor of, say, 10. >>=20

  There seems to be a little problem with the math, here (duh).  4 x 5 x =
50 =3D 1000, not 150, for starters.  Next, this idea that a piano =
"tuner" would "tune" 4 pianos a day, 5 days a week would also amount to =
1,000 pianos, not 1,500.  But this supposition would amount to a rarity, =
not what an *average* piano technician would do.=20

  First of all, pianos need more than *just tuning*, as I'm sure we can =
all confirm.  I'd really question such a claim, that *anyone* really, =
only tuned 1,000 pianos every year, year after year.  That would =
inevitably amount to a *dis* service, not a good and honest way to make =
a living.  Please don't ask me to believe that there 150 of these guys =
running that kind of racket in Chicago!=20

  My off the cuff guess is there would be about 50 piano technicians in =
Chicago.  I'm not sure in this exercise if the 3 million figure is just =
Chicago or the whole metro area that includes all the suburbs or not.  =
The PTG directory lists a total of 110 for both the Chicago and Waukegan =
(a north suburb of Chicago) Chapters.  Of course there may be many =
people who are not PTG members.=20

  But still, that list includes people like Jack Greenfield and Virgil =
Smith whom I'm quite certain don't tune 20 pianos a week, 1,000 a year.  =
Then, there are people like Alan Vincent who run a company and do belly =
work and hardly ever tune and people like Kurt Saphir who probably =
*sells* 1,000 pianos a year and also rarely do any tuning.=20

  Wouldn't an easier and more accurate way of determining this number be =
to look in the phone book and count the names, then add maybe 10% for =
those who don't list themselves?=20

  Bill Bremmer RPT=20
  Madison, Wisconsin=20
  Click here: -=3Dw w w . b i l l b r e m m e r . c o m =3D-=20

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