One way to approach this is by reverse-engineering the classical Fermi problem "How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?" Fermi, a brilliant scientist, taught his students to estimate based on fragmentary information. Here's the Wikipedia summary: *The classic Fermi problem, generally attributed to Fermi, is "How many **piano tuners* <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piano_tuner>* are there in **Chicago*<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago> *?" A typical solution to this problem would involve multiplying together a series of estimates that would yield the correct answer if the estimates were correct. For example, we might make the following assumptions:* 1. *There are approximately 5,000,000 people living in Chicago. * 2. *On average, there are two persons in each household in Chicago. * 3. *Roughly one household in twenty has a piano that is tuned regularly. * 4. *Pianos that are tuned regularly are tuned on average about once per year. * 5. *It takes a piano tuner about two hours to tune a piano, including travel time. * 6. *Each piano tuner works eight hours in a day, five days in a week, and 50 weeks in a year. * *From these assumptions we can compute that the number of piano tunings in a single year in Chicago is* *(5,000,000 persons in Chicago) / (2 persons/household) × (1 piano/20 households) × (1 piano tuning per piano per year) = 125,000 piano tunings per year in Chicago. * *And we can similarly calculate that the average piano tuner performs* *(50 weeks/year)×(5 days/week)×(8 hours/day)×(1 piano tuning per 2 hours per piano tuner) = 1000 piano tunings per year per piano tuner. * *Dividing gives* *(125,000 piano tuning per year in Chicago) / (1000 piano tunings per year per piano tuner) = 125 piano tuners in Chicago.* Are these assumptions anywhere near correct? You may not want to do 20 tunings a week and it is safe to say that you might want to survive on an average of 10 per week. That's 500 tunings a year as a survival level. Is there one piano per 20 households? Or is the Kimball estimate of 19% (about one piano per five people) closer? This will of course vary with the general cultural level of the area. (We might guess that Philadelphia will have more pianos per thousand people than, say, Waco, Texas.) (No offense to Waco.) if we split the difference and suppose one piano per 20 people ... then those 500 pianos live in a population of 10,000. How many PTG-known piano tuners are in Chicago anyway? | || ||| || ||| || ||| || ||| || ||| || ||| || ||| jason's cell 425 830 1561 http://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonkanter | || ||| || ||| || ||| || ||| || ||| || ||| || ||| On Wed, Dec 10, 2008 at 2:43 PM, Paul T Williams < pwilliams4 at unlnotes.unl.edu> wrote: > > Indeed, 2000 pianos! How would you have the time! Tuning repairing, the > inevitable rebuilding (or partial) job thrown in. Just 2,000 tunings a year > means a little over 5 per day ( at 340 days per year) Man, ya gotta have > some break... God Bless your ears, and with travel time at 5 minutes > between tunings! I only tune 5-6 per day if I'm getting ready for a new > semester here at UNL, and I'm exhausted afterwards! Or,.... in the old days > tuning those dreaded "wharehouse piano sales" put on by the different stores > I used to work for. You know... where little kids try to match the note > you're working on on the piano next to it... the little old ladies who try > to humm the note you're working on, the constant chatter, and the salesman > who blasts out a mediocre rendition (that's being nice!) of a Chopin > polonaise to "impress" the potential buyer. > > From the population issue aspect, I used to live on an island north of > Seattle. God bless em all, but we had 4 RPT's, and at least 2 "tooners" for > a 50,000 polulation! That's why we all had to travel to the mainland to > make a living. Then there was the ferry lines......Ohhhhh how I miss those > days! ;>) NOT!!! > > Todd, I've always wondered where you are building your business? Your > questions a great and it sounds like you're on the right track to get it > going. Keep up the good work and keep asking questions! I only wish I'd have > joined this blog years ago. > > Best, > Paul Williams RPT > PTG member since 1992 > > > > > > *Matthew Todd <toddpianoworks at att.net>* > Sent by: pianotech-bounces at ptg.org > > 12/10/2008 04:19 PM Please respond to > toddpianoworks at att.net; Please respond to > pianotech at ptg.org > > To > pianotech at ptg.org cc > Subject > Re: [pianotech] Piano Technicians and Populations > > > > > > What constitutes a "comfortable" living?? If I had 2000 pianos that I > only tuned once a year, that would be over 200,000 per year!!! And that's > just tuning. And I understand about overhead and all that, but what am I > missing here? > > *TODD PIANO WORKS* > Matthew Todd, Piano Technician > (979) 248-9578 > *http://www.toddpianoworks.com* <http://www.toddpianoworks.com/> > > > --- On *Wed, 12/10/08, wimblees at aol.com <wimblees at aol.com>* wrote: > From: wimblees at aol.com <wimblees at aol.com> > Subject: Re: [pianotech] Piano Technicians and Populations > To: fg at floydgadd.com, pianotech at ptg.org > Date: Wednesday, December 10, 2008, 6:28 PM > > Floyd > > A long time ago, Kimball did some research on this. They claimed that if > you take a given geographical area's population, and multiply that number by > 19%, that's how many pianos there are in that geographical area. (That > doesn't mean that 19% of the population has a piano, but between schools, > churches, bars, etc, that's how many pianos there are.) Considering that one > piano technician should be able to make a comfortable living with > approximately 2000 pianos, you can figure out how many piano technicians are > needed in a given geographical area. > > When I was RVP, I gave that information once at a chapter meeting, where > there were 13 tuners in attendance. The next day I learned that one of them > had decided to quit the business, because he figured out that there just > weren't enough pianos in the area to make a living. > > Of course, as you indicated, this is not an ironclad rule, and some areas > might need more, and some less. But it's gives you a starting point. > > > Willem (Wim) Blees, RPT > Piano Tuner/Technician > Mililani, Oahu, HI > 808-349-2943 > Author of: > The Business of Piano Tuning > available from Potter Press > www.pianotuning.com > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Floyd Gadd <fg at floydgadd.com> > To: pianotech at ptg.org > Sent: Wed, 10 Dec 2008 4:45 am > Subject: [pianotech] Piano Technicians and Populations > > Where can I find industry data to answer the question of how much of a > population base it takes to support a piano technician? > > I was talking with a locksmith friend the other evening, and he recounted > that as he was setting up his business a number of years ago, research led > him to understand that in his industry, a population of about 15,000 per > technician was necessary to make business viable. His experience in a > center with a population of 12,000 that grew to just over just 15,000 > convinced him that the data was useful. > > I'm sure that whatever figure emerges, there are variables, such as the > scope of the tasks a technician is prepared to undertake, but I would be > interested in > knowing what data is out there. > > Floyd Gadd > Manitoba Chapter > > > > ------------------------------ > Listen to 350+ music, sports, & news radio stations – including songs for > the holidays – FREE while you browse. *Start Listening Now*<http://toolbar.aol.com/aolradio/download.html?ncid=emlweusdown00000013>! > > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: <http://ptg.org/pipermail/pianotech_ptg.org/attachments/20081210/161b613e/attachment-0001.html>
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