<html><head></head><body bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><div><br></div><blockquote type="cite"><div><font face="Comic Sans MS, sans-serif"><font size="2" style="font-size: small; color: navy; "><font face="Comic Sans MS, sans-serif">  </font></font><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000080" style="font-size: small; ">Th</font><font face="Comic Sans MS, sans-serif"><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000080" style="font-size: small; ">is is such an astounding coincidence.  Hmm... Maybe its not?</font><br><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000080" style="font-size: small; ">   Really though? What are the actual numerical chances?</font><br><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000080" style="font-size: small; ">   Dale</font><br></font></font></div></blockquote>  <div>Ok, cool. I could entertain that. A number for entertainment purposes.</div><div>To come up with a reasonable number I need to make some reasonable assumptions.</div><div><br></div><div>So assume the following to estimate the numerical chances.</div><div><br></div><div>That most people would call fir a tuning after 1 year, so I'll exclude the first year.</div><div>That most people call between the hours of 9am and 7pm, therefore to be </div><div>Fair and reasonable to the calculation, 10 possible hours per day that they could </div><div>Have chosen to call back.</div><div><br></div><div>What are the chances of them calling at that particular hour.</div><div><br></div><div>1 /29 years * 10 hrs per day* 365 days a year</div><div><br></div><div>= 1 in 105,850 </div><div><br></div><div>      Just over a one in one hundred thousand chance she would call that location at that particular hour.</div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.296875); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">      But that is only the probability of her attempting to reach that number at that particular hour. </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.296875); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); "><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.296875); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">      We </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">Also need to calculate the probability of that couple having chosen to have kept the number, and having chosen not </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">to move in 25 years, so as to keep that phone number working at that location for nearly 3 decades. So more reasonable assumptions for the  purpose of creating a reasonable numerical probability. Assuming a 50/50 chance that they choose to assume the old phone number, </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">And assuming a one in five chance they didn't move in nearly 30 years 5*2= a further factor of one </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">In 10. </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">      Also factor in the chances of this particular couple at this particular address with this same </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469);">Old phone number happening to own a piano. Being generous and conservative, piano ownership was once more common, and this is an older couple, let's say one in two.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469);"><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469);">     Now we need to multiply the three sets of probabilities of the three conditions together, </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469);"><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469);">Number of potential hours to call that number  * probability they still having that number at that same location* probability of the new people at that location owning a piano.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469);"><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">       So rounding some numbers  down to be conservative about this</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); "><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">1/100,000 * 1/10  *1/2  = a one in two million chance of her calling that number at that particular hour,  </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">Still reaching that same house with that same number, and that house actually has a piano that needs tuning.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469);">      That is only the probability of her calling at that specific time and reaching someone still at that address, and that someone happens to be a piano owner.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469);">         Now we need to multiply that by the probability of them having called me for a tuning, not someone else, 1/20 , and my booking it at that </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">particular hour. They had not tuned their piano in 10 years.  </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">The chances of them booking a tuning that particular hour of ten thousand available road hours in the last 10 years. Now we have 1/20(booked me) times 1/10,000 (booked that hour) , =one in 2million  </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">That I would be there, not someone else, at that particular hour over a 10 year period that the  </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">Piano needed tuning. </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">   1/ 2million (chances of the call at that particular moment happening and still working) </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">Times  1/2</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">million(chances of me being here at that particular time)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); "><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); "> = one in  2 trillion chance of them calling at that particular hour after 30 years, and that particular number still being at that house, and that particular house happening to have a piano, and the house owner calling this particular tuner, and happening to book the tuning at that same particular  hour. Any one of those variables not panning out correctly and my experiencing this strange phone call does not happen.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); "><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">        Ok, it's late, I'm tired, and I'm wasting time hypothesizing about the probability.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">But the chances are so astounding, it is quite entertaining......</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); "><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">                                             Cheers and loud annoying yelping sounds</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">                                              Drjazz</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">                                              Dave Renaud</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); "><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); "><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">     </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469);"><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469);"><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.296875); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); "><br></span></div><div><br></div><div><br><blockquote type="cite"><div><font face="Comic Sans MS, sans-serif"><font face="Comic Sans MS, sans-serif"><div style="clear: both; "><tt><tt><font><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000080" style="font-size: small; ">   </font></font><br></tt></tt></div><div style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 10pt; color: black; "> <br> <div id="AOLMsgPart_1_ebb78844-b2f1-48ab-ab27-ab79f58d4f25"> <div>A funny story with a valuable theme.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>I'm tuning a piano at an elderly clients home, and the phone rings.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>It's for you the lady says, it's for the piano tuner.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>Who could it be?  My wife does not have my schedule anymore. It must </div> <div>Be an emergency and she went digging in the computer for it.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>I take the phone and a lady at the other end would like to book a piano tuning.</div> <div>I ask "Ah, are you a friend of client x",..no.</div> <div>"A neighbor "...no</div> <div>"Do you have my business phone number and web coordinates.."..no, isn't this the piano tuner.</div> <div>"Yes, I am tuning mrs x, piano, but how did you get my clients number."</div> <div><br> </div> <div>She replies, the number was in the piano, is this 1888 Lorraine Avn.</div> <div>Why yes, that is where i am, but that is my clients house; I'm confused.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>Well she says, your address and phone number is on a business card in the piano.</div> <div>Ah, I ask, when is the last time you tuned the piano.......nearly 30 years ago.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>My client, overhearing the growing confusion says, "ah, when we moved here 25 years ago,</div> <div>The previous owner was a piano tuner and had passed away, we acquired his phone number."</div> <div><br> </div> <div>What are the chance of her calling to book a tuning, 30 years later, at the very hour I arrive</div> <div>At that house to tune a piano.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>Moral of the story.......every business card you leave in a piano may be doing overtime for you </div> <div>For decades to come. </div> <div><br> </div> <div>30 years later.</div> <div>What are the chances, eh.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>                                Cheers</div> <div>                                 Dave Renaud</div> <div><br> </div> <div><br> </div> <div><br> </div> <div><br> </div> <div>Sent from my iPad</div> <div><br> On 2012-03-25, at 6:19 PM, Thos Carpenter <<a href="mailto:cathomas1003@qwestoffice.net">cathomas1003@qwestoffice.net</a>> wrote:<br> <br> </div> <div></div> <blockquote type="cite"> <div><br> <div> <span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "> <div> <div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "> <div>A FINE TECHNICIAN</div> <div>Thos. Carpenter - Piano Technician</div> <div>303.684.6766</div> <div><a target="_blank" href="http://www.AFINETECH.com">www.AFINETECH.com</a></div> <div><br> </div> <div><br> </div> <div><br> </div> </div> <br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></div> </span><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"> </div> <div><br> <div>Begin forwarded message:</div> <br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type="cite"> <div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;"><span style="font-family:'Helvetica'; font-size:medium; color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 1);"><b>From: </b></span><span style="font-family:'Helvetica'; font-size:medium;">Thos Carpenter <<a href="mailto:cathomas1003@qwestoffice.net">cathomas1003@qwestoffice.net</a>><br> </span></div> <div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;"><span style="font-family:'Helvetica'; font-size:medium; color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 1);"><b>Date: </b></span><span style="font-family:'Helvetica'; font-size:medium;">March 22, 2012 8:11:59 AM MDT<br> </span></div> <div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;"><span style="font-family:'Helvetica'; font-size:medium; color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 1);"><b>To: </b></span><span style="font-family:'Helvetica'; font-size:medium;"><a href="mailto:pianotech@ptg.org">pianotech@ptg.org</a><br> </span></div> <div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;"><span style="font-family:'Helvetica'; font-size:medium; color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 1);"><b>Subject: </b></span><span style="font-family:'Helvetica'; font-size:medium;"><b>Conover (Cable) butt </b><br> </span></div> <br> <div>Dear List,<br> (what are the chances?) does anyone have a 1908 Conover (Cable) hammer butt.  Specifically F#7 (in the event that I might find a matching hammer).  This is an unique butt in that this particular action is "bridlestrapless".  This is the only action I have seen that is such.  As I say, this action does not have bridal straps and instead has an "L" shaped hook which protrudes out of the top of the jack which catches in a hole under the catcher dowel.<br> The story given is that - some thirty (or so) years ago a previous technician, of high regard, had taken the hammer and butt with him whom has since gone to greener pastures - the parts in question to be forever lost in the labyrinth of the fabled, ever evasive bottomless drawer of possibly someday usable salvaged piano parts.<br> thanks,<br> Tom<br> Berthoud, CO<br> <br> A FINE TECHNICIAN<br> Thos. Carpenter - Piano Technician<br> 303.684.6766<br> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.AFINETECH.com">www.AFINETECH.com</a><br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> </div> </blockquote></div> <br> </div> </blockquote> </div>  </div> </font></font></div></blockquote></div></body></html>