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<font face="Courier New, Courier, monospace">I think that the people
writing that article are guilty of some sloppy thinking. Part of <br>
the trouble stems from how "GDP" is counted. Anything that gets paid
for is considered to <br>
be part of the Gross Domestic Product. That doesn't mean that
everything counted is equally <br>
of value. The lost airplane flights and restaurant meals were just
consumption, non-productive.<br>
<br>
If destruction were all that was needed to "stimulate the economy",
then all we have to do <br>
is get people out of harm's way and send the Air Force to bomb our
cities to the ground. We'd <br>
all be rich for years ... <br>
<br>
This "we'll all be rich from rebuilding" is an example of something
called the "Broken <br>
Window Fallacy." All the money that workmen and emergency crews and
home supply stores are <br>
earning HAS COME FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE. It comes from insurance companies
who will have to <br>
raise their premiums so we all pay more for insurance. It might well
put some of them out <br>
of business. If such storms are more and more frequent, insurance will
be difficult to find <br>
at all, let alone afford. <br>
<br>
If it is paid for by government emergency funds, then it gets added to
our deficit. That <br>
deficit will make us pay more in interest to keep it rolling along, and
if we have other <br>
needs (like food inspection, education, the NIH, the court system, food
stamps for the unemployed, <br>
and roads and bridges) they will have to go short or be postponed. <br>
<br>
If the cost of rebuilding is borne by the people whose houses were
destroyed, then the <br>
money will come from their savings. This money (if they were in the
black) will not be <br>
available for investing in industry or businesses. They will not have
the income from <br>
this money to spend on other things. If they were in debt already, this
could bring a lot <br>
of them into bankruptcy. Then their creditors lose. <br>
<br>
The money for rebuilding has to come from somewhere, and the only kind
of rebuilding <br>
which makes sense is "hardened" against future storms. There could be
some efficiency gained <br>
by intelligent rebuilding, but it will all have to be paid for. <br>
<br>
Money spent on wallboard, wiring, and plumbing is unlikely to be spent
on piano tuning -- <br>
even if they still have a working piano. <br>
<br>
A lot of the damage, especially to vulnerable low-lying areas in New
Jersey, will <br>
probably never be rebuilt to what it was before the storm. The people
who lost their <br>
homes will of course be looking for other homes to buy or rental
accommodations. It <br>
will keep realtors busy. But for those who lost homes, their net worth
will be less <br>
than before, not more, even if they were covered by insurance. Many
weren't. And <br>
city budgets will be strained to the breaking point even if they get
federal aid. <br>
<br>
Just my opinion, and I'm extremely glad that it wasn't my area which
was ruined. <br>
Oregon may have a severe earthquake just off the coast (we're overdue
for a big one), <br>
and there might be a Japan-style tsunami from it. Even if the water is
unlikely <br>
to reach as far inland as I live, coastal towns and parts of Portland
could be <br>
devastated. If the middle of the country continues to have terrible
droughts, <br>
tornadoes, and floods, the Gulf continues to have hurricanes, and now
the East <br>
Coast is vulnerable more and more often -- well, we have to adjust as
well as <br>
we can, but we all will be poorer, not richer. <br>
<br>
Susan<br>
<br>
<br>
</font><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:tnrwim@aol.com">tnrwim@aol.com</a> wrote:
<blockquote
cite="mid:8CF9978DE53B5CC-2A0-14FBE@webmail-m054.sysops.aol.com"
type="cite"><font color="black" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"
size="2">
<div><font style="background-color: transparent;">Right after Sandy
hit, I made the comment that the storm might be the shot in the arm
this country needs to get out of the economic doldrums. What I meant
by the comment was that while we are not necessarily going to see a
direct impact on piano tuning and repairing, although we will get some
of that. But more importantly we are going to see the "ripple" effect
of the total economic impact. Construction workers, plumbers,
electricians, etc, are going to make more money. They will, in turn buy
new cars and appliances. Those sales people will go out to dinner more
often. Etc. Etc. All along the way, more people will have more money to
spend on goods and services that are near and dear to them that will
directly effect us, everywhere from getting the piano tuned more often
to actually buying a new piano. It might take a couple of months, or
even years, but we are in for a good couple of years. Even I will feel
that impact as people will earn enough money to take a much needed
vacation to Hawaii, where they will go out to dinner, and leave a big
tip for one of my customers. </font></div>
<div> </div>
<div><font style="background-color: transparent;">For a more detailed
explanation of the effects of Sandy, read the following article
in Bloomberg News. </font></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><font style="background-color: transparent;"><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-23/sandy-seen-boosting-u-s-with-as-much-as-240-billion-rebuilding.html">http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-23/sandy-seen-boosting-u-s-with-as-much-as-240-billion-rebuilding.html</a></font></div>
<div style="clear: both;">
<div> </div>
<div>Wim</div>
</div>
</font>
</blockquote>
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