One Piano Per....??

[Brian Doepke]

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Mr. Frazee,
 
I would be very interested in your findings.  Thank you for offering them.
 
Brian P. Doepke
 
AAA Piano Works, Inc.
260-432-2043
260-417-1298
 
  _____  

From: pianotech-bounces@ptg.org [mailto:pianotech-bounces@ptg.org] On Behalf
Of James H Frazee
Sent: Tuesday, January 17, 2006 5:37 PM
To: Pianotech List
Subject: Re: One Piano Per....??
 
I am in the midst of preparing this very marketing analysis for a
presentation at our local (New York) chapter.  I spent my entire life to
date as a marketing professional for large firms like Dansk, Farberware,
Johnson & Johnson, Cartier and others so, as I entered the piano technician
field, the first thing I sought to do was marketing feasability study for my
area, basing it on secondary research available from trusted sources.  What
I was trying to determine, initially, was the expected response rate to my
advertising.  In other words, if I spend X dollars in medium A, how many
responses should I get.  This gets into some high falutin' math and
gyrations and is VERY specific to where you live, census data, piano
ownership data, demographic and psychographic stratification and, and, and,
most of all, a LOT of assumptions.  In a nutshell, though, here's some of
what I've found:
 
Incidence of piano ownership in the U.S. is approximately three (3) per
cent, as shown below:
 

Sales of Acoustic Pianos in the U.S.
 
	

Unit Sales for Last 27 Years
Incidence of
	

Yr.
Grands
%T
Verticals
%T
Total
Change
Ownership
	

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
	

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
	

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
	

2004
30.0
35.3%
55.0
64.7%
85.0
0.0%
 
	

2003
30.0
35.3%
55.0
64.7%
85.0
1.1%
 
	

2002
30.8
36.6%
53.3
63.4%
84.1
6.5%
 
	

2001
28.1
35.6%
50.9
64.4%
79.0
-16.0%
 
	

2000
33.4
35.5%
60.6
64.5%
94.0
2.1%
 
	

1999
32.1
34.9%
60.0
65.1%
92.1
-8.0%
 
	

1998
33.6
33.6%
66.5
66.4%
100.1
12.2%
 
	

1997
28.4
31.8%
60.8
68.2%
89.2
12.2%
 
	

1996
26.5
33.3%
53.0
66.7%
79.5
-15.5%
 
	

1995
28.0
29.8%
66.1
70.2%
94.1
-0.7%
 
	

1994
29.0
30.6%
65.8
69.4%
94.8
-1.7%
 
	

1993
27.6
28.6%
68.8
71.4%
96.4
-6.3%
 
	

1992
29.4
28.6%
73.5
71.4%
102.9
-3.7%
 
	

1991
27.8
26.0%
79.1
74.0%
106.9
-4.5%
 
	

1990
27.7
24.8%
84.2
75.2%
111.9
-11.4%
 
	

1989
28.6
22.6%
97.7
77.4%
126.3
-10.8%
 
	

1988
32.3
22.8%
109.3
77.2%
141.6
-16.5%
 
	

1987
38.5
22.7%
131.0
77.3%
169.5
2.6%
 
	

1986
33.4
20.2%
131.8
79.8%
165.2
14.5%
 
	

1985
27.6
19.1%
116.7
80.9%
144.3
-14.4%
 
	

1984
26.2
15.5%
142.3
84.5%
168.5
-10.9%
 
	

1983
20.3
10.7%
168.9
89.3%
189.2
-3.0%
 
	

1982
20.6
10.6%
174.5
89.4%
195.1
-11.9%
 
	

1981
19.9
9.0%
201.5
91.0%
221.4
-3.2%
 
	

1980
18.0
7.9%
210.7
92.1%
228.7
-15.5%
 
	

1979
19.0
7.0%
251.6
93.0%
270.6
-2.4%
 
	

1978
20.0
7.2%
257.2
92.8%
277.2
N/A
 
	

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
	

Totals
746.8
 
2945.8
 
3692.6
 
 
	

%T
20.2%
 
79.8%
 
 
 
3.3%
	

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
	

Incidence of Ownership based on U.S. Census data for 2003:  # U.S.
Households= 111,278,000
	
	
 
Without getting too far into the analysis, from this data you must add data
you find or make assumptions and inferences/inductions as to household types
within your market area, zip code/family income and/or composition.  I will
say that, at this point, my results have been slightly higher than a 3.3%
response rate, (a rate which in any other marketing campaign would be
astronomically high).  This is because I live in an affluent, densely
populated area.  The point is, think it through, how many people live where
you work?  How many have pianos?  How many have pianos they care about?  How
many have kids who are taking lessons?  How many of the pianos sold above
went to institutions - 35%, more?  That cuts down, then, on the number of
personal pianos in our universe.  
 
Anyway, I hope this gets you thinking in the right direction.  When my study
is complete, I'd be happy to send a copy to anyone who's interested, with
the caveat that it applies (MOSTLY) to my marketing area and, of course, my
assumptions and intuitions.  
 
 

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