[CAUT] endangered european piano- newspaper article

[Richard Brekne]

Good post agi'n der Fred.

You see the thing I'm worried most about in all this is that it actually 
takes a stable and sizeable market to support the industry to the degree 
that there are enough people involved in production that the 
knowledge/experience base remains intact.  If that falters... then the 
quality of instruments will fall and electronics will become even more a 
viable alternative for the low end market.  That is an evil self feeding 
circle if it gets rolling.

The numbers showing some 90 % of world piano production already in the 
hands of Chinese says more then anything else to me that the buying 
public will opt for the cheapest solution.  All that remains necessary 
for the total demise of the acoustic market is for enough of that same 
buying public to decide that all in all electronics are good enough.  
These are on the march as well mind you... the cost of good quality 
L-pianos will drop dramatically as analog interfaces become unnecessary. 
The quality of artificial simulated acoustic piano sound will continue 
to improve to equal if not out do todays best recordings at some 
point.... all this just gets too seductive in the end.

In my mind the only question is how long this transition will take.  
Taking a shot in the dark... I'd say that a hundred years from now 
acoustic music will be a nostalgic memory wisping speedily into the 
forgotten. 

I mean... put yourself in the position of the fellow living in the year 
2108..... her every day reality consists of being plugged directly into 
the nett via a real time interface with the rest of the world... the 
greatest majority of her efforts are executed in a virtual reality.  
Knowledge and virtual skills are fed directly into her memory....  what 
need does she have of a physical piano in the first place ?  Science 
fiction... ? I'm far from sure about that... the basic tools are already 
being ponced out.  Read back issues of Scientific American... June 2007 
I think.... they already are well on the way to figuring out the brains 
<<machine code language>> Once thats done... an interface to whatever 
internet exists when they do is quickly accomplished... and most of the 
other tools for interfacing human behaviour/communication are already 
pretty well figured out and are only hampered by existing technology. 

Cheers
RicB

    I think there is and will continue to be a market, admittedly small,
    for truly high quality musical pianos. It will consist of concert
    halls, institutions of higher education, and a small number of 
    individuals (the rare ones who are not only accomplished musicians, 
    but also have a fair amount of money). The major problem facing 
    manufacturers, I believe, is that they are competing with an
    enormous  used/remanufactured inventory out there for re-sale. But I
    am  convinced that some manufacturers will survive. The parts 
    manufacturers will survive because of us, the rebuilders purchasing 
    parts. The manufacturers that survive will be those which are
    nimble,  and find creative ways of marketing - like even (shudder)
    the Baldwin  one-off "designer" pianos.    But, yes, I become more
    and more pessimistic about the future of such  firms as the lovely
    German ones. Fragile as all get out. The one truly  bright spot is
    China: an enormous market that is seemingly just  hitting its
    stride. 40-50 million piano students, with no used  inventory to
    speak of in the country. Some percentage will become  accomplished
    and demand quality. We're seeing a heck of a lot of them  come to
    this country and raise the bar.
    Regards,
    Fred Sturm
    University of New Mexico
    fssturm at unm.edu

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