Greg Newell posted this regarding my recent statistical analysis:
"This sounds just like an article in this months Reader's
Digest. Oops ... did I find you out?"
Did you find me out? I've used this logic of "guestimation" all my
life. If you read all the follow-up posts regarding this topic you'll
realize that I was VERY close in my "guesses." I guess you might say
that Reader's Digest found me out. By the way, Greg, I quickly
"guestimated" 2 hours for the bowling ball to reach the bottom of the
trench using the same sequence of logic they did in the article - off
a little, but close enough for government work!
Regards,
John Piesik
P.S. For those who care, the article that Greg brought up is about
making good decisions without having all the exact details and facts
(an important characteristic of good managers and business owners). A
question raised in the article was: How long would it take for a 12
pound bowling ball to descend to the bottom of the deepest ocean
trench? There is a logical method of determining this without knowing
exactly how deep the trench is or the exact velocity of the sinking
ball. You can determine the answer with everyday, common knowledge
without a calculator. The correct answer is about 1 hour.
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